Best in the Northern Fells (84), poorest in the Southern Fells (69)
2 days after this forecast was made: the first few days are the most reliable part of the outlook. How sure is it?
About this forecast
The day verdicts and figures come from Open-Meteo’s blend of weather models (best_match), scored for each area at the average height of its summits, the same way as Conditions. This run: Tue 27 Oct, 02:09 UK time (02:09 UTC).
Wind is the strongest gust expected on the tops in daylight. Feels like is the wind chill on the tops, averaged through the day. Rain is the total forecast between sunrise and sunset, and the chance of rain in each daylight hour, averaged: it is not the chance that it rains at all that day. Visibility is the lowest in daylight.
Scores are out of 100: Cracking is 75 and over, Decent 55 to 74, Marginal 35 to 54, Save it under 35. A promising day is Cracking or Decent. A ~ before a score marks a day more than three days ahead, where the outlook is less certain.
All 214 scored Wainwright summits · the Met Office UKV 2 km model via Open-Meteo, scored at 02:09 GMT · daylight hours, sunrise to sunset · a tile is large when at least 1 top in 10 is past its line
Wind on the tops
Past the line
214of 214 tops gusting 25 mph or more
Estimated summit gusts in the worst daylight hour run from 41 mph on Holme Fell to 88 mph on Scafell Pike.
under 250
25–350
35–458
45–5558
55+148
The line Our line: 25 mph, where our wind Scale begins its 25–35 band: “balance affected; buffeting on exposed ground”. MWIS (opens in new tab) describes what wind does to a walker across a range rather than at a line: from about 20–25 mph it starts to affect your balance.
Estimated: the model’s gust times our exposure factor, up to 1.5 on the highest tops. It is not calibrated against summit readings.
Cloud on the tops
Past the line
59of 214 tops likely in cloud
Most of them in the Eastern (23), Southern (20) and Far Eastern (13) Fells.
The line Our line: a clear-top reading under 20 out of 100, where our scorer says “summit likely clagged in”. There is no outside threshold to cite; it is our estimate. What cloud does to finding the way: navigating in cloud.
Estimated hour by hour from the forecast’s humidity and low cloud, then averaged over the daylight hours. Not an observation: cloud lifts and drops within the hour.
Also checkedcold: 0 of 214 tops with snow or ice possible; feels like down to −4 °C; rain: 0 of 214 tops reach 6 mm between sunrise and sunset (the middle top 0.2 mm). Under a line is not the same as fine: it means only that these figures are under the lines we use.
Not in these tiles Lightning, river levels, snow or ice already lying, and the ground under your feet. A tile cannot see them, so an empty space here never means they are absent.
Bars pale and take on a hatch further ahead — that is the forecast getting less
certain, not a different verdict. Colours are colour-blind-safe: Save it is grey, not red. Choose a day for every area’s score.
Every area, every day (table)
Saved with this page: the forecast run of Tue 27 Oct, 02:09 UK time.
No fresh read of the fifty model runs today: the last, of the run started Mon 26 Oct, 00:00 UK time (00:00 UTC), is 32 hours old, and newer runs have come out since. The outlook above stands without it, and its first few days are the most reliable part.
The season ahead
The fifty runs again, but stretched: six weeks ahead from ECMWF’s extended ensemble and seven months from its seasonal system. Not a forecast of any day. What it can say is whether the runs lean milder or colder, wetter or drier, than the normal for these fells, and how many of them agree. Seasonal skill in north-west England is modest; what the system does reasonably in winter is the Atlantic’s mood, mild-and-wet against cold-and-clear, and that is the question this answers.
Read Tue 27 Oct, 01:32 UK time (01:32 UTC). The six-week read refreshes every night, the months on the 5th.
North
Keswick, Skiddaw, Blencathra
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder than normal in 1 of the 6 weeks, the rest split; drier than normal in 2 of the 6 weeks, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 4 weeks, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
26 Oct–1 Nov
Part week: this read covers only its last 6 days
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean24 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
9 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 4 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
24 of 50split
28 of 50split
29 of 50split
26 of 50split
21 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
1 of 50hardly any
1 of 50hardly any
21 of 50split
23 of 50split
23 of 50split
20 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+2 mphwindier
+3 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
≈about usual
+2 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
-0.1 cmless snow
-0.2 cmless snow
≈about usual
≈about usual
-0.1 cmless snow
+0.3 cmmore snow
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 5 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 2 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 7 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal47 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 26 of 50 runs milder; 24 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean32 of 50 runs wetter
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal33 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean19 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
No clear lean on warmth or rain 32 of 50 runs milder; 23 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean28 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal41 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal33 of 50 runs
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder than normal in 1 of the 6 weeks, the rest split; drier than normal in 2 of the 6 weeks, the rest split. Snow: more than the model’s usual for its cell in 3 weeks, which leans towards more snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
26 Oct–1 Nov
Part week: this read covers only its last 6 days
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean21 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal48 of 50 runs
9 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 4 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
21 of 50split
29 of 50split
29 of 50split
30 of 50split
22 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
1 of 50hardly any
2 of 50hardly any
24 of 50split
24 of 50split
25 of 50split
22 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+3 mphwindier
+4 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
≈about usual
+2 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
+0.1 cmmore snow
-0.1 cmless snow
+0.2 cmmore snow
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 6 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 3 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 6 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal49 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 28 of 50 runs milder; 24 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal33 of 50 runs
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal33 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean22 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
WarmthMilder than normal34 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean23 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean25 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal41 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal34 of 50 runs
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2027
Feb
Mar
Apr
Warmer than normalruns of 50
49 of 50nearly all
28 of 50split
36 of 50most
33 of 50most
34 of 50most
36 of 50most
41 of 50most
Wetter than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
24 of 50split
33 of 50most
22 of 50split
23 of 50split
25 of 50split
34 of 50most
Windmodel’s own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
Sunshinemodel’s own average
-5 MJ/m²duller
+3 MJ/m²brighter
-2 MJ/m²duller
-3 MJ/m²duller
≈about usual
-6 MJ/m²duller
-20 MJ/m²duller
Groundtopsoil, model’s own average
+0.012wetter ground
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
+0.008wetter ground
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
-0.8 cmless snow
-2.2 cmless snow
-2.8 cmless snow
-2.0 cmless snow
-0.8 cmless snow
-0.5 cmless snow
Ground wetter than the model’s usual in Oct and Apr: the tops here that are boggy in an ordinary winter are where that would show first, Broom Fell, Lord's Seat, Robinson, Graystones, Ling Fell, Barrow and 3 more rated often boggy.
Central
Ambleside, Grasmere, Helvellyn
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder than normal in 1 of the 6 weeks, the rest split; drier than normal in 2 of the 6 weeks, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 1 week, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
26 Oct–1 Nov
Part week: this read covers only its last 6 days
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean20 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
9 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 4 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
20 of 50split
30 of 50split
29 of 50split
28 of 50split
21 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
1 of 50hardly any
1 of 50hardly any
24 of 50split
27 of 50split
26 of 50split
23 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+4 mphwindier
+4 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
-0.1 cmless snow
≈about usual
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 6 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 2 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 6 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 28 of 50 runs milder; 24 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean31 of 50 runs wetter
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean25 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
WarmthMilder than normal34 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean24 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean28 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal44 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal35 of 50 runs
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2027
Feb
Mar
Apr
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
28 of 50split
36 of 50most
35 of 50most
34 of 50most
36 of 50most
44 of 50nearly all
Wetter than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
24 of 50split
31 of 50split
25 of 50split
24 of 50split
28 of 50split
35 of 50most
Windmodel’s own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
Sunshinemodel’s own average
-4 MJ/m²duller
+2 MJ/m²brighter
-2 MJ/m²duller
-2 MJ/m²duller
≈about usual
-5 MJ/m²duller
-20 MJ/m²duller
Groundtopsoil, model’s own average
+0.021wetter ground
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
+0.010wetter ground
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
-0.3 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-2.6 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-0.8 cmless snow
-0.5 cmless snow
Ground wetter than the model’s usual in Oct and Apr: the tops here that are boggy in an ordinary winter are where that would show first, High Tove, Ullscarf, Armboth Fell, High Seat, Calf Crag, Great Crag and 12 more rated often boggy.
East
Ullswater, High Street, Kentmere
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder in 1 week and colder in 1, the rest split; wetter in 1 week and drier in 3, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 6 weeks, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
19–25 Oct
Part week: this read covers only its last day
WarmthColder than normal48 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
26 Oct–1 Nov
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal46 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean23 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal41 of 50 runs
Show the other 2 weeks
9–15 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean18 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal35 of 50 runs
16 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 3 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
19–25 Oct
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
2 of 50hardly any
50 of 50nearly all
23 of 50split
18 of 50split
29 of 50split
28 of 50split
27 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
4 of 50hardly any
9 of 50few
15 of 50few
23 of 50split
21 of 50split
22 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+2 mphwindier
+3 mphwindier
+4 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
≈about usual
+1 mphwindier
≈about usual
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
+0.4 cmmore snow
-0.1 cmless snow
-0.1 cmless snow
+0.3 cmmore snow
-0.2 cmless snow
≈about usual
+0.2 cmmore snow
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 5 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 1 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 7 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal47 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 27 of 50 runs milder; 22 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal37 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean32 of 50 runs wetter
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal34 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean19 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
No clear lean on warmth or rain 32 of 50 runs milder; 26 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean25 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal41 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean32 of 50 runs wetter
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder than normal in 1 of the 6 weeks, the rest split; drier than normal in 2 of the 6 weeks, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 1 week, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
26 Oct–1 Nov
Part week: this read covers only its last 6 days
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean21 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
9 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 4 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
21 of 50split
30 of 50split
29 of 50split
28 of 50split
21 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
1 of 50hardly any
1 of 50hardly any
24 of 50split
27 of 50split
26 of 50split
23 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+4 mphwindier
+4 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
-0.1 cmless snow
≈about usual
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 6 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 2 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 6 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 28 of 50 runs milder; 24 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean31 of 50 runs wetter
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean25 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
WarmthMilder than normal34 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean24 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean28 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal44 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal35 of 50 runs
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2027
Feb
Mar
Apr
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
28 of 50split
36 of 50most
35 of 50most
34 of 50most
36 of 50most
44 of 50nearly all
Wetter than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
24 of 50split
31 of 50split
25 of 50split
24 of 50split
28 of 50split
35 of 50most
Windmodel’s own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
Sunshinemodel’s own average
-4 MJ/m²duller
+2 MJ/m²brighter
-2 MJ/m²duller
-2 MJ/m²duller
≈about usual
-5 MJ/m²duller
-20 MJ/m²duller
Groundtopsoil, model’s own average
+0.021wetter ground
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
+0.010wetter ground
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
-0.3 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-2.6 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-0.8 cmless snow
-0.5 cmless snow
Ground wetter than the model’s usual in Oct and Apr: the tops here that are boggy in an ordinary winter are where that would show first, Lank Rigg, Hen Comb, Burnbank Fell, Caw Fell, Gavel Fell, Seatallan and 9 more rated often boggy.
South
Coniston, Windermere, Duddon · the same 36 km cell as South-west at this resolution
The next six weeks ECMWF 46-day ensemble, 50 runs, refreshed daily
Milder than normal in 1 of the 6 weeks, the rest split; drier than normal in 2 of the 6 weeks, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 1 week, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
26 Oct–1 Nov
Part week: this read covers only its last 6 days
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
2–8 Nov
WarmthNo clear lean21 of 50 runs milder
RainDrier than normal49 of 50 runs
9 Nov to 6 Dec
No clear lean on warmth or rain in any of these 4 weeks.
The run counts are in the figures below.
Every figure, week by week
26 Oct–1 Nov
2–8 Nov
9–15 Nov
16–22 Nov
23–29 Nov
30 Nov–6 Dec
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
21 of 50split
30 of 50split
29 of 50split
28 of 50split
21 of 50split
Wetter than normalruns of 50
1 of 50hardly any
1 of 50hardly any
24 of 50split
27 of 50split
26 of 50split
23 of 50split
Windmodel’s own average
+4 mphwindier
+4 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+1 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
+2 mphwindier
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
-0.1 cmless snow
≈about usual
The coming months ECMWF seasonal system, 50 runs, refreshed on the 5th
Milder than normal in 6 of the 7 months, the rest split; wetter than normal in 2 of the 7 months, the rest split. Snow: less than the model’s usual for its cell in 6 months, which leans towards fewer snowy days on the tops (a model reading, not a count of them).
Oct
WarmthMilder than normal50 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal50 of 50 runs
Nov
No clear lean on warmth or rain 28 of 50 runs milder; 24 of 50 runs wetter
Dec
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean31 of 50 runs wetter
Show the other 4 months
Jan 2027
WarmthMilder than normal35 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean25 of 50 runs wetter
Feb
WarmthMilder than normal34 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean24 of 50 runs wetter
Mar
WarmthMilder than normal36 of 50 runs
RainNo clear lean28 of 50 runs wetter
Apr
WarmthMilder than normal44 of 50 runs
RainWetter than normal35 of 50 runs
Every figure, month by month (wind, sunshine, ground, snow)
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2027
Feb
Mar
Apr
Warmer than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
28 of 50split
36 of 50most
35 of 50most
34 of 50most
36 of 50most
44 of 50nearly all
Wetter than normalruns of 50
50 of 50nearly all
24 of 50split
31 of 50split
25 of 50split
24 of 50split
28 of 50split
35 of 50most
Windmodel’s own average
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
Sunshinemodel’s own average
-4 MJ/m²duller
+2 MJ/m²brighter
-2 MJ/m²duller
-2 MJ/m²duller
≈about usual
-5 MJ/m²duller
-20 MJ/m²duller
Groundtopsoil, model’s own average
+0.021wetter ground
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
≈about usual
+0.010wetter ground
Snowmodel’s cell, its own average
≈about usual
-0.3 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-2.6 cmless snow
-1.6 cmless snow
-0.8 cmless snow
-0.5 cmless snow
Ground wetter than the model’s usual in Oct and Apr: the tops here that are boggy in an ordinary winter are where that would show first, Seathwaite Fell, Illgill Head, Rossett Pike, Whin Rigg.
How to read this
Everything here is measured against the model’s own average for that cell, the years it was trained on. “43 of 50” means forty-three of the fifty runs put that week warmer than the model’s usual September week there; a split row means the runs have not made their minds up, which seven weeks out is the usual state most of the time. The rows below the counts, wind, sunshine, ground and snow, are the same lean as one signed figure. What a normal month looks like on these fells in real years is the climatology further down this page, and each month has its own page: the fells month by month.
One cell is a valley and the fells around it, 36 km across and lower than the tops. A snow row appears only when a week or a month carries a snow lean; when there is none on the horizon there is no row, and that absence is the reading.
Seasonal outlook: ECMWF EC46 and SEAS5 through Open-Meteo, not bias-corrected, an area forecast on a 36 km grid that sits lower than the tops; leans and run counts are against the model's own climatology for the cell. Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (opens in new tab). Sources and licences.
What’s the Lake District weather actually like?
The short answer: wetter and windier than most of England, and quick to change. The central fells sit squarely in the path of Atlantic weather systems, and Seathwaite in Borrowdale is regularly cited as the wettest inhabited place in England, with well over 3,000 mm of rain a year. But “it always rains in the Lakes” is a myth — the eastern and far-eastern fells around Ullswater and Haweswater are noticeably drier than the western ones, and long settled spells do happen, especially in spring and early autumn.
Roughly, by season:late spring (May–June) and September are often the driest, clearest and most settled — the sweet spot for the fells, with long daylight and fewer midges. High summer (July–August) is warm and busy but can be humid and hazy, with afternoon showers. Autumn and winter bring the heaviest rain and strongest wind, short days, and snow and ice on the tops from roughly November to April — genuine winter conditions that need the right kit and experience.
How to read a mountain weather forecast
A valley forecast and a mountain forecast can be worlds apart. On the summits it’s colder (very roughly 6–10°C cooler than the valley), far windier, and often in cloud when the dale below is clear. Before any big walk, check a proper mountain forecast, not just the town one:
Lake District Weatherline (opens in new tab) — a Lakes fell forecast plus the winter Fell Top Assessor report, walked and measured daily from the summit of Helvellyn — the closest thing to a boots-on report of what the tops are really doing.
Read wind as summit gusts (around 40 mph on the tops makes ridges hard work; 60 mph is dangerous), watch the freezing level in winter (below summit height means snow and ice underfoot), and treat the cloud base as your likely view — if it’s sitting at 600 m, the high tops will be in cloud. Then use the outlook above to pick your day, and our live conditions for today and tomorrow.
Common planning questions
Which day is best to walk in the Lake District this week?
Use the outlook above: pick a green (Cracking) or blue (Decent) day in your chosen region, then confirm with the Met Office mountain forecast and MWIS before you go.
How far ahead can I reliably plan?
The first few days are the most trustworthy; treat days 7–15 as a steer for choosing a likely weekend rather than a firm forecast, and re-check nearer the time.
What do the verdicts mean?
Each day is scored 0–100 and banded Cracking, Decent, Marginal or Save it — the same method as the Conditions page. Colours are colour-blind-safe on the bars, where Save it is grey; on its chip Save it is red, and every verdict is written out.
Does it always rain in the Lake District?
No — though it’s one of the wettest parts of England. The western fells and Borrowdale (home to Seathwaite, often called England’s wettest inhabited place) get far more rain than the drier eastern fells around Ullswater and Haweswater, and settled dry spells are common in late spring and early autumn.
When is the best time to visit the Lake District for good weather?
Late spring (May and June) and September tend to be the driest, clearest and most settled for the fells, with long daylight and fewer midges than high summer. July and August are warmest but busiest and can be hazy; late autumn and winter bring the heaviest rain, and snow and ice to the tops.